JAPAN AND CHINA
The results of the war between Russia
and Japan seem to have caused a large number of persons
to work themselves into a state of incipient panic
regarding what has been graphically, if not quite correctly,
termed “the yellow peril.” Japan,
a nation of some 47,000,000 people, had thrown down
the gauntlet and totally defeated, both by land and
sea, one of the great military Powers of the world.
Japan had done all this as a result of some quarter
of a century spent in modelling and training her Army
and Navy on European lines, and adopting European
arms of destruction. Of course, so argued the
panic-mongers, China must be impressed by such an
object-lesson China, which has for so many
years past been, and is still being, squeezed by the
European Powers. The result of Japan’s
triumph would inevitably be, so we were asked to believe,
that China would invite the former to organise the
Chinese Army and Navy on Japanese lines. As the
outcome thereof, a nation, not of forty, but of four
hundred millions, would be trained to arms, and, if
the Chinese raw material proved as good as the Japanese,
a nation so powerful, if it proceeded West on conquest
bent, would carry everything before it, and, unlike
the last Eastern invaders of Europe, the Turks, would
be unlikely to be stopped on its onward course at
Vienna. The German Emperor was amongst those who
have voiced the cry of “the yellow peril.”
He does not, however, appear to have cast himself
for the part of John Sobieski, with Berlin instead
of Vienna as the decisive battle-ground. The persons
who have so argued and have attempted to raise this
silly cry of “the yellow peril,” with
a view of alarming Europe were, I think, merely the
victims of an exuberant imagination. Their facts
have no existence save in the realms of fancy, and
as they reasoned from faulty premises on imperfect
or erroneous information, their conclusions were, as
might have been expected, not only inaccurate, but
absurdly ludicrous. There is no “yellow
peril,” no prospect whatever of it, either present
or remote.
The attitude of China, that vast though
heterogeneous nation, is, since the close of the Russo-Japanese
War, I admit, one of the most intense interest.
Some persons may consider that in a book about Japan
any other than a passing reference to China is out
of place, and that, moreover, for me to deal with
the attitude of China is to wander into political
regions a peripatetic proceeding I deprecated
in the Preface. I am of opinion, however, that
it is impossible to thoroughly understand Japan and
to appreciate the attitude of that country to the
Western Powers without some remarks respecting the
present and prospective relations of China and Japan.
I also think that some consideration of this bogey
of “the yellow peril” is not only out of
place but indispensable in order to form a correct
idea of the precise effect of recent events in the
Far East and the possible outcome of them.
To any person who has closely studied
Far Eastern problems the attitude of China since the
close of the war between Japan and Russia is in no
way surprising; the forces that have long been steadily
at work in that ancient Empire are now only attaining
any degree of development. There is nothing,
in my opinion, in the history of the world more dramatic
than the way in which China has waited. That
country is now, I believe, about to show that the waiting
policy has been a sound one, and I am confident it
will eventually prove triumphant. In 1900 I expressed
in print the opinion that not a single acre of Japanese
soil would ever be permitted to be annexed by a foreign
country; I spoke of the policy of China for the Chinese,
and remarked that that principle and policy had been
repeated throughout the length and breadth of that
vast Empire, and had been absorbed, as it were, into
the very marrow of its people. It is in many respects
interesting and curious, indeed almost comical, the
manner in which that lesson has been driven home upon
the Chinese. Russia has always been to them a
powerful, persistent, and aggressive neighbour, a more
formidable aggressor, indeed, because perhaps nearer,
than any of the other Powers of Europe, whom I am
sorry to say China has always looked upon very much
as the substantial householder regards the burglar.
Now that Japan has tried conclusions with Russia and
has soundly thrashed the latter, great, slumbering
China, proud, conservative, but supremely conscious
of its latent resources, has been waking up. The
Chinese, as a matter of fact, have very little veneration,
respect, or esteem, for their Japanese neighbours.
The former plume themselves on being the aristocrats
of the East, and they reason, with some show of plausibility,
that if the upstart Japanese have been able to so
thoroughly rout the Russian forces the potential possibilities
of China on the warpath are enormous. Every thoughtful
student of the East has looked forward to what I may
term the Japanisation of China as one of the inevitable
results of the recent conflict in the Far East.
To a certain extent the Japanisation of China has commenced,
but at the same time one cannot be oblivious of the
fact that the Chinese, with their traditions and sense
of self-importance, have not the slightest intention
of slavishly following in the lead of those islanders
whom they have always contemned, but mean to strike
out a line for themselves. If what we believe
to be civilisation is to be developed in China, it
will be developed by the Chinese themselves. If
they are going to possess railways, telegraphs, telephones,
and all the machinery of that material advancement
which we call progress, and sometimes civilisation,
the Chinese themselves will be the importers and adapters
and, in due course, the manufacturers thereof.
Now that the great fight in the Far
East is over, it certainly looks as if the Chinese
at last realised the fact that development is an inevitable
necessity. The master-spirits in the country have
assuredly come to the conclusion, possibly with regret,
that China can no longer remain in that delightful
state of isolation which permitted every man in the
Empire to spend the arc of his life, from his cradle
to his grave, in a state of restful security.
China is, in spite of herself, and certainly against
the inclinations of the mass of the populace, being
swept into the maelstrom of struggle now that the people,
or rather their leaders, realise the position.
Their attitude seems to me to be magnificent.
If railways have to be made they will be made by the
Chinese; the concessions already granted must this
is the universal feeling be bought back,
even at a profit, from those who have acquired them,
by the Chinese themselves. Not one new concession
must, on any pretence whatever, ever again be granted
to a foreigner. And if this Western civilisation
is to be forced upon the Chinese, they intend to take
it with all its attendant precautions. They are
naturally a peaceful and unaggressive people, but they
have grasped the fact that, as a strong man armed
is in the best position to safeguard his house, however
peaceful his individual proclivities may be, so too,
if a nation is to defend its territory and its territorial
wealth against spoliation, it must be armed for that
purpose.
For many years past Great Britain
and France and other countries have been sending missionaries
to China to expound to the Chinese people those sublime
doctrines enunciated in the Sermon on the Mount.
The Chinese have diagnosed, from the acts of the European
Powers generally as well as from the actions of individual
Europeans resident in China, the precise value to
be attached to Christianity. For purely defensive
purposes China will have almost immediately an Army
which has been effectively described by the Times
correspondent as being able to relieve the European
Powers of any anxiety respecting the integrity of
the Chinese Empire. People who have not visited
the Far East, and who entirely derive their opinions
and information in regard thereto from the newspapers,
cannot possibly realise what effect the policy of the
European Powers has had upon nations like China and
Japan. A professedly Christian country like Great
Britain going to war to force the sale of opium on
a people who did not want to be debauched; a power
like Germany annexing Kiaochao as a golgotha for two
murdered priests proceedings such as these,
and there have been many such during the last forty
or fifty years, have been taken seriously to heart
by the Far Eastern races, whether in China or Japan.
All the time the Occidental Powers, with a total lack
of any sense of humour, have persisted in sending
missionaries to these people to inculcate doctrines
which are the very antithèses of the practices
of European nations to these people whom it is sought
to convert. It would be, in my opinion, nothing
more than the outcome of eternal justice if this great
big, old, sleepy China, which has been for so many
years pricked and prodded and despoiled, were at length
to take up arms for a great revenge. But China,
if my prevision be correct, is going to do nothing
of the kind. What she does mean to do is simply
to keep China for the Chinese. She is not, as
so many persons imagined and still imagine would be
the case, going to be led as a powerful ox with a Japanese
driver. Chinese students are in hundreds in Japan,
learning from that country all that the Japanese have
acquired from Europe. Young, alert, capable men
I found them without exception, sucking the brains
of all that is best in Japan precisely as the Japanese
have sucked the brains of all that is best in Europe
for their own objects and to their own advantage.
The immediate danger in China seems, so far as I can
judge, to be that the anti-foreign feeling, which
is undoubtedly intense especially in the south of
the Empire, may come to a head any day and prematurely
explode. The nincompoops and quidnuncs and newspaper
men ravenous for copy who prate about a “yellow
peril” may, in this latter fact, find some slight
excuse for their blatant lucubrations. There is
no real “yellow peril.” Poor old China,
which has been so long slumbering, is just rousing
herself and making arrangements for defence against
the “white peril,” materialistic civilisation,
and misrepresented Christianity.
The only “yellow peril”
that I have been able to diagnose is the peril to
the trade of Europe and the United States of America
with China a peril that appears to me to
be imminent. That Japan intends to capture a
large, indeed the largest, proportion of that trade
I am firmly convinced. That she will succeed
in effecting her object I have not the slightest doubt.
At the present moment only about 5 per cent. of the
imports into China are from Japan, the remainder being
either from India, Europe, or America. Situated
in close contiguity to China, having assimilated everything
of importance not only in regard to the employment
but the manufacture of machinery from Europe and the
United States, possessing an industrious and intelligent
population, Japan is quite obviously in a magnificent
position to supply China, and supply her on much better
terms, with the greater number of those commodities
which China now has to import either from Europe or
America. Japan, as I have said, intends to lay
herself out to capture the major portion of this trade;
she is quite justified in doing so, and there is every
reason to suppose that she will attain her object.
That the Chinese students who have
come to Japan and are flocking there month by month
in increasing numbers, with a thirst for knowledge
and a desire to assimilate all those Western influences
and ideas and aids that have placed Japan in her present
prominent position among the nations, when they, in
due course, return to their own country, will of a
certainty exercise a considerable influence therein,
there can be no doubt. I also feel sure that Japan
will render considerable assistance to China in regard
to the remodelling and reorganisation of the Chinese
Army and Navy. It is as certain as anything in
this uncertain world that before very many years have
elapsed the naval and military forces of China will
undergo as great a transformation as those of Japan
have undergone. I believe, and I may say that
this belief is shared by a number of naval and military
men who have had practical opportunities for forming
an opinion in the matter, that the raw material existing
in China for the making of an effective and efficient
Army and Navy is as good as that in Japan. We
know that the late General Gordon, who had excellent
opportunities for arriving at a sound conclusion in
the matter, expressed himself in glowing terms in
regard to the capabilities of the Chinaman as a soldier
were he properly trained, organised, and officered.
But that China, any more than Japan, entertains ambitious
military projects I utterly disbelieve. The only
aspiration of China as regards Europe is to
be let alone. She fears, as she has every reason
to fear, European aggression. She has had ample
experience in the past that the flimsiest pretexts
have been utilised for the purpose of filching her
territory and exacting from her pecuniary fines under
the name of indemnities. We know by a recent
incident that the indemnity exacted from China by
this country in respect of the Boxer rebellion was
not really required for the ostensible purposes for
which it was imposed. A large proportion of it
lay at the Bank of England unappropriated, and eventually
was attached by a rapacious Chancellor of the Exchequer
for the purpose of alleviating the burdens of the British
taxpayer. China is determined to have no more
incidents such as this in the future, and the Russo-Japanese
War has given her occasion for serious thought in
the matter as well as pointed an obvious moral.
As a result of her cogitations, she has concluded
that the most effective means she can take in the
direction of preserving the inviolability of her territory
and preventing the exaction of periodical monetary
tributes on the part of foreign Powers, is to establish
a strong and efficient Army and Navy. As a matter
of fact, I consider that in so determining China is
acting not only in her own interests, but in the interests
of the Great Powers of Europe.
Not very many years ago that excellent
sailor, Lord Charles Beresford, wrote a book entitled,
somewhat too previously, “The Break-up of China.”
In selecting a title for his work Lord Charles without
doubt voiced the opinion prevalent, not only in this
country but in Europe, at the time he wrote it.
The statesmen of nearly all the foreign Powers then
seemed to have arrived at the conclusion that the scramble
for China was imminent and, utilising their experience
from what took place when the scramble for Africa
was effected twenty years ago, they began apportioning
in advance the territory that ought to fall to their
lot. In this matter, however, they were wofully
mistaken; the diplomatic physicians of the world may
have diagnosed the symptoms quite accurately, but
the patient surprised them all in regard to the course
of the disease and her recuperative powers. There
will be no “break-up” of China, and consequently
we are not likely to witness any scramble for China.
There has undoubtedly been an awakening of China,
an awakening to her danger, to a sense of the extent
to which her interests were imperilled. She wants,
as I have said, to be severely left alone, and she
is determined as far as possible to effect that consummation.
The men of light and leading in China know perfectly
well that they cannot now, even if they would, shut
their country against European trade, European residents,
European visitors. They are prepared to accept
all these, but they will not have European interference.
China is determined to work out her own destiny or
salvation, call it which you will, and Japan is both
willing and anxious to give her all possible assistance
in that direction. The “yellow peril”
bogey is, in my opinion, the silliest and most absurd
cry that has ever been put forward by responsible persons.