THE BERNHARDI OF THE SEAS
After the break in diplomatic relations
the slogan of German Militarism became:
“Win or lose, we must end the war.”
To many observers it seemed to be
insanity coupled with desperation which caused the
Kaiser to defy the United States. There was no
doubt that Germany was desperate, economically, morally
and militarily. While war had led German armies
far into enemy territory, it had destroyed German
influence throughout the world; it had lost Germany’s
colonies and Pacific possessions and it had turned
the opinion of the world against Germany. But
during the time Germany was trying to impress the
United States with its sincerity after the Sussex
incident the German Navy was building submarines.
It was not building these ships to be used in cruiser
warfare. It was building them for the future,
when submarine war would be launched on a big scale,
perhaps on a bigger scale than it had ever before been
conducted.
After the new blockade of the Allied
Coast was proclaimed, effective Fe, 1917, some
explanation had to be made to convince the public
that the submarine war would be successful and would
bring the victory which the people had been promised.
The public was never informed directly what the arguments
were which convinced the Kaiser that he could win
the war by using submarines. But on the 9th of
February there appeared a small book written by Rear
Admiral Hollweg entitled: “Unser Recht
auf den Ubootkrieg.” (Our Right in
Submarine Warfare.) The manuscript of this book was
concluded on the 15th of January, which shows that
the data which it contained and the information and
arguments presented were those which the Admiralty
placed before the Kaiser on his birthday. The
points which Rear Admiral Hollweg makes in his book
are:
1. America’s unfriendly
neutrality justifies a disregard of the United States;
2. The loss of merchant ships
is bringing about a crisis in the military and economic
conditions of the Allies;
3. England, as the heart of the
Entente, must be harmed before peace can be made;
4. Submarines can and must end the war.
This book is for the German people
a naval text book as General von Bernhardi’s
book, “Germany and the Next War,” was a
military text book. Bernhardi’s task was
to school Germany into the belief in the unbeatableness
of the German army. Hollweg’s book is to
teach the German people what their submarines will
accomplish and to steal the people for the plans her
military leaders will propose and carry through on
this basis.
The keynote of Hollweg’s arguments
is taken from the words of the German song: “Der
Gott der Eisen wachsen Liesz,”
written by Ernst Moritz Arndt. Hollweg quotes
this sentence on page 23:
“Lieber ein Ende mit
Schrecken, als ein Schrecken ohne
Ende.”
("Rather an end with Terror than Terror without End.”)
In the chapter on “The Submarine
War and Victory” the writer presents the following
table:
Status of merchant ships in 1914:
Sunk
or
Captured
Percentage
England (Exclusive of
colonies) .......... 19,256,766 2,977,820 15.
France .............. 2,319,438 376,360 16.
Russia .............. 1,053,818 146,168 13.
Italy ............... 1,668,296 314,290 18.
Belgium ............. 352,124 32,971 9.
Japan ............... 1,708,386 37,391 0.22
(Figures for De estimated)
The World Tonnage at beginning of war was.... 49,089,
Added 1914-16 by new construction............ 2,000,
----------
51,089,553
Of this not useable are:
Tonnage Germany ... 5,459,
Austria ... 1,055,
Turkey ... 133,158
In Germany and Turkey
held enemy
shipping .......... 200,000
Ships in U. S. A... 2,352,764
Locked in Baltic and
Black Sea ......... 700,000
Destroyed enemy
tonnage ........... 3,885,
----------
Total 13,785,937
Destroyed neutral
tonnage (estimated) 900,
----------
14,685,937
Requisitioned by enemy countries for
war purposes, transports, etc.
England ....... 9,000,
France ........ 1,400,
Italy ......... 1,100,
Russia ........ 400,
Belgium ....... 250,
----------
12,150,
----------
26,835,
----------
Remaining for world freight transmission still
useable at the beginning of 1917............ 24,253,615 tons
To the Entente argument that Germany
has not considered the speedy construction of merchant
ships during war time the author replies by citing
Lloyd’s List of December 29, 1916, which gave
the following tonnage as having been completed in
British wharves:
1913 .......... 1,977,000 tons
1914 .......... 1,722,000 tons
1915 .......... 649,000 tons
1916 .......... 582,000 tons
“These figures demonstrate that
England, which is the leader of the world as a freight
carrier is being harmed the most.” Admiral
Hollweg cites these figures to show that ship construction
has decreased in England and that England cannot make
good ship losses by new construction.
“We are conducting to-day a
war against enemy merchant vessels different from
the methods of former wars only in part by ordinary
warships. The chief method is by submarines based
upon the fundamentals of international law as dictated
by German prize court regulations. The German
prize regulations were at the beginning of the war
based upon the fundamental principles of the London
Declaration and respected the modern endeavours of
all civilised states to decrease the terrors of war.
These regulations of sea laws were written to decrease
the effects of the unavoidable consequences of sea
warfare upon non-combatants and neutrals. As
far as there have been changes in the regulations
of the London Declaration during the war, especially
as far as changes in the contraband list have been
extended, we Germans have religiously followed the
principle set by the English of, ’an eye for
an eye and a tooth for a tooth.’”
“Americans would under no circumstances,
not even to-day, if they were faced by a superior
sea power in war, refuse to follow this method of
warfare by the ruthless use of pirate ships.
May our submarine campaign be an example for them!
The clever cruiser journey of U-53 off the Atlantic
Coast gave them clearly to understand what this method
was. Legally they cannot complain of this warfare.
The other neutrals cannot complain either against
such sea warfare because they have ever since the
Middle Ages recognised the English method of sea warfare.”
“Before there is a discussion
of our legal right to the submarine warfare a brief
review of the general policies of our opponents during
the war will be given. This account shall serve
the purpose of fortifying the living feeling within
us of our natural right and of our duty to use all
weapons ruthlessly.
“If we did not know before the
publication of the Entente Note [The Allies’
peace reply to Germany] what we were up against, now
we know. The mask fell. Now we have confirmation
of the intentions to rob and conquer us which, caused
the individual entente nations to league together
and conduct the war. The neutrals will now see
the situation more clearly. For us it is war,
literally to be or not to be a German nation.
Never did such an appeal [The Entente Note] find such
a fruitful echo in German hearts. . . .”
“I begin with England, our worst enemy.”
Admiral Hollweg speaks
of the fact that at the beginning of the war many
Germans, especially those in banking and business circles,
felt that Germany was so indispensable to England in
peace time that England would not conduct a war to
“knock out” Germany. But Hollweg
says the situation has now changed.
He justifies the
ruthless submarine warfare in the following way:
“It is known that England and
her allies declared at the beginning of the war that
they would adhere to the Declaration of London.
It is just as well known that England and the Allies
changed this declaration through the Orders in Council
and other lawless statements of authority until the
declaration was unrecognisable and worthless especially
the spirit and purpose of the agreement were flatly
pushed aside until practically nothing more remains
of the marine laws as codified in 1909. The
following collection of flagrant breaches of international
law will show who first broke marine laws during the
war.”
“Ten gross violations of marine
law in war time by England.
“1. Violation of Article
IV of the Maritime Declaration of April 16th, 1855.
Blockading of neutral harbours in violation of international
law.
“2. Violation of Article
II of the same declarations by the confiscation of
enemy property aboard neutral ships. See Order
in Council, March 11th, 1915.
“3. Declaration of the
North Sea as a war zone. British Admiralty Declaration,
November 3, 1914.
“4. England regarded food
as contraband since the beginning of the war.
The starvation war. England confiscated neutral
food en route to neutral states whenever there was
a possibility that it would reach the enemy.
This violated the recognised fundamental principles
of the freedom of the seas.
“5. Attempt to prevent
all communications between Germany and neutral countries
through the violation of international law and the
seizing of mail.
“6. Imprisonment of German
reservists aboard neutral ships.
“7. a. Violation of Article
I of The Hague Convention by the confiscation of the
German hospital ship Ophelia. b. Murdering
of submarine crew upon command of British auxiliary
cruiser Baralong. c. Violation of Article
XXIX, N, of London Declaration by preventing American
Red Cross from sending supplies to the German Red
Cross.
“8. a. Destruction of German
cruisers Kaiser Wilhelm der Grosse in Spanish
territorial waters by English cruiser Highflyer.
b. Destruction of German cruiser Dresden
in Chinese waters by British cruiser Glasgow.
c. Attack of British warships on German ship
Paklas in Norwegian waters.
“9. England armed her merchant ships for
attack.
“10. Use of neutral flags
and signs by British merchantmen in violation of Articles
II and III of the Paris Declaration.”
After discussing the
question of whether the English blockade has been
effective and arguing that England by seizing neutral
ships with food on the supposition that the food was
going to Germany, he says:
“We may conclude from these
facts that we Germans can now consider ourselves freed
from the uncomfortable conditions of the London Declaration
and may conduct the war as our own interests prescribe.
We have already partially done this in as much as
we followed the English example of extending the lists
of war contraband. This has been inconvenient
for the neutrals affected and they have protested against
it. We may, however, consider that they will
henceforth respect our proposals just as they have
in the past accepted English interests. England
demanded from them that they assist her because England
was fighting for the future of neutrals and of justice.
We will take this principle also as basis for what
we do and even await thereby that we will compel England
to grant us the kind of peace which can lay new foundations
for sea warfare and that for the future the military
acts of belligerents against neutrals will not be
carried to the extremes they have been for centuries
because of England’s superior sea power.
This new era of civilised warfare we bring under the
term ’freedom of the seas.’”
Hollweg’s next justification
of the unlimited submarine warfare is that Secretary
of State Lansing in a note to Count von Bernstorff
at first said merchant ships could not be armed and
then changed his mind.
Hollweg says: “And
now in discussing the question of the legal position
of the submarine as a warship I cite here the statements
of the German authority on international law, Professor
Dr. Niemeyer, who said: ’There can be absolutely
no question but that the submarine is permitted.
It is a means of war similar to every other one.
The frightfulness of the weapon was never a ground
of condemnation. This is a war in which everything
is permitted, which is not forbidden.’”
“The Submarine War and Victory” the author
says:
“Every great deed carries with
it a certain amount of risk. After the refusal
of our peace proposal we have only the choice of victory
with the use of all of our strength and power, or,
the submission to the destructive conditions of our
opponents.”
He adds that his statements shall
prove to the reader that Germany can continue the
hard relentless battle with the greatest possibility
and confidence of a final victory which will break
the destructive tendencies of the Entente and guarantee
a peace which Germany needs for her future existence.
“All
food prices in England have increased on the average
80% in price, they are for example considerably higher
in England than in Germany. A world wide crop
failure in Canada and Argentine made the importation
of food for England more difficult.
“England earns in this war as
opposed to other wars, nothing. Part of her
industrial workers are under arms, the others are working
in making war munitions for her own use, not, however,
for the export of valuable wares.”
Admiral Hollweg has a clever theory
that the German fleet has played a prominent role
in the war, although most of the time it has been
hugging the coasts of the Fatherland. He declares
that the fleet has had a “distance effect”
upon the Allies’ control of the high seas.
“What I mean in extreme by ‘fernwirkung’
[distance effect] I will show here by an example.
The English and French attack on Constantinople failed.
It can at least be doubted whether at that time when
the connection between Germany and Turkey was not
established a strong English naval unit would have
brought the attack success. The necessity of
not withdrawing the English battleships from the North
Sea prevented England from using a more powerful unit
at Constantinople. To this extent the German
battle fleet was not without influence in the victory
for the defender of Constantinople. That is ‘distance
effect.’”
On page 187 Hollweg declares:
“England not only does not make money to-day
by war but she is losing. The universal military
service which she was forced to introduce in order
to hold the other Allies by the tongue draws from
her industry and thereby her commerce, 3,500,000 workmen.
Coal exportation has decreased. During the eleven
months from January to November, 1916, 4,500,000 tons
less coal was exported than in 1915. In order
to produce enough coal for England herself the nation
was compelled by the munitions obligation law to put
miners to work.”
“That is, therefore, the great
and important role which the submarines in this war
are playing. They are serving also to pave the
way in the future for the ‘freedom of the seas.’”
He adds that the submarines will cut
the thread which holds the English Damocles’
sword over weak sea powers and that for eternity the
“gruesome hands” of English despotism will
be driven from the seas.
Germany’s submarine warfare
which was introduced in February, 1915, began by sinking
less than 50,000 tons of ships per month. By
November, 1915, the amount of tonnage destroyed per
month was close to 200,000 tons. By January,
1916, the tonnage of ships destroyed by submarines
had fallen to under 100,000 tons. In April, 1916,
as Grand Admiral von Tirpitz’ followers made
one more effort to make the submarine warfare successful,
nearly 275,000 tons were being destroyed a month.
But after the sinking of the Sussex and the
growing possibilities of war with the United States
the submarine warfare was again held back and in July
less than 125,000 tons of shipping were destroyed.
At this time, however, the submarine
campaign itself underwent a change. Previously
most of the ships destroyed were sunk off the coast
of England, France or in the Mediterranean. During
the year and a half of the submarine campaign the
Allies’ method of catching and destroying submarines
became so effective it was too costly to maintain submarine
warfare in belligerent waters. The German Navy
had tried all kinds of schemes but none was very successful.
After the sinking of the Ancona the Admiralty
planned for two submarines to work together, but this
was not as successful as it might have been.
During May, June and July the submarine warfare was
practically given up as the losses of ships during
those months will show. There was a steep decline
from a quarter of a million tons in April to less
than 140,000 tons in May, about 125,000 tons in June
and not much more than 100,000 tons in July.
During these three months the Navy
was being bitterly criticised for its inactivity.
But as the events six months later will show the
German navy simply used these months to prepare for
a much stronger submarine campaign which was to begin
in August. By this time it was decided, however,
not to risk a submarine campaign off the Allied coasts
but to operate in the Atlantic, off the coasts of Spain
and Norway. This method of submarine warfare
proved very successful and by November, 1916, Germany
was sinking over 425,000 tons of ships per month.
During this swell in the success of
the submarine campaign the U-53 was despatched across
the Atlantic to operate off the United States coasts.
U-53 was sent here for two purposes:
First, it was to demonstrate to the American people
that, in event of war, submarines could work terror
off the Atlantic coast. Second, it was to show
the naval authorities whether their plans for an attack
on American shipping would be practical. U-53
failed to terrorise the United States, but it proved
to the Admiralty that excursions to American waters
were feasible.
On February 1, when the Kaiser defied
the United States by threatening all neutral shipping
in European waters, Germany had four hundred undersea
boats completed or in course of construction.
This included big U-boats, like the U-53, with a
cruising radius of five thousand miles, and the smaller
craft, with fifteen-day radius, for use against England,
as well as supply ships and mine layers. But
not all these were ready for use against the Allies
and the United States at that time. About one
hundred were waiting for trained crews or were being
completed in German shipyards.
It was often said in Berlin that the
greatest loss when a submarine failed to return was
the crew. It required more time to train the
men than to build the submarine. According to
Germany’s new method of construction, a submarine
can be built in fifteen days. Parts are stamped
out in the factories and assembled at the wharves.
But it takes from sixty to ninety days to educate
the men and get them accustomed to the seasick motion
of the U-boats. Besides, it requires experienced
officers to train the new men.
To meet this demand Germany began
months ago to train men who could man the newest submarines.
So a school was established a School of
Submarine Murder and for many months the
man who torpedoed the Lusitania was made chief
of the staff of educators. It was a new task
for German kultur.
For the German people the lessons
of the Lusitania have been exactly opposite
those normal people would learn. The horror of
non-combatants going down on a passenger liner, sunk
without warning, was nothing to be compared to the
heroism of aiming the torpedo and running away.
Sixty-eight million Germans think their submarine officers
and crews are the greatest of the great.
When the Berlin Foreign Office announced,
after the sinking of the Sussex, that the ruthless
torpedoing of ships would be stopped the German statesmen
meant this method would be discontinued until there
were sufficient submarines to defy the United States.
At once the German navy, which has always been anti-American,
began building submarines night and day. Every
one in the Government knew the time would come when
Germany would have to break its Sussex pledge.
The German navy early realised the
need for trained men, so it recalled, temporarily,
for educational work the man who sank the Lusitania.
“But, who sank the Lusitania?”
you ask.
“The torpedo which sank the
Lusitania and killed over one hundred Americans
and hundreds of other noncombatants was fired by Oberleutnant
zur See (First Naval Lieutenant)
Otto Steinbrink, commander of one of the largest German
submarines.”
“Was he punished?” you ask.
“Kaiser Wilhelm decorated him
with the highest military order, the Pour lé
Mérite!”
“Where is Steinbrink now?”
“On December 8, 1916, the German
Admiralty announced that he had just returned from
a special trip, having torpedoed and mined twenty-two
ships on one voyage.”
“What had he been doing?”
“For several months last summer
he trained officers and crews in this branch of warfare,
which gained him international notoriety.”
It is said that Steinbrink has trained
more naval men than any other submarine commander.
If this be true, is there any wonder that Germany
should be prepared to conduct a ruthless submarine
warfare throughout the world? Is it surprising
that American ships should be sunk, American citizens
murdered and the United States Government defied when
the German navy has been employing the man who murdered
the passengers of the Lusitania as the chief
instructor of submarine murderers?
The Krupp interests have played a
leading role in the war, not only by manufacturing
billions of shells and cannon, and by financing propaganda
in the United States, but by building submarines.
At the Krupp wharves at Kiel some of the best undersea
craft are launched. Other shipyards at Bremen,
Hamburg and Danzig have been mobilised for this work,
too. Just a few weeks before diplomatic relations
were broken a group of American doctors, who were
investigating prison camp conditions, went to Danzig.
Here they learned that the twelve wharves there were
building between 45 and 50 submarines annually.
These were the smaller type for use in the English
Channel. At Hamburg the Hamburg-American Line
wharves were mobilised for submarine construction
also. At the time diplomatic relations were severed
observers in Germany estimated that 250 submarines
were being launched annually and that preparations
were being made greatly to increase this number.
Submarine warfare is a very exact
and difficult science. Besides the skilled captain,
competent first officers, wireless operators and artillerymen,
engineers are needed. Each man, too, must be
a “seadog.” Some of the smaller submarines
toss like tubs when they reach the ocean and only
toughened seamen can stand the “wear and tear.”
Hence the weeks and months which are necessary to
put the men in order before they leave home for their
first excursion in sea murder.
But Germany has learned a great deal
during two years of hit-and-miss submarine campaigns.
When von Tirpitz began, in 1915, he ordered his men
to work off the coasts of England. Then so many
submarines were lost it became a dangerous and expensive
military operation. The Allies began to use
great steel nets, both as traps and as protection
to warships. The German navy learned this within
a very short time, and the military engineers were
ordered to perfect a torpedo which would go through
a steel net. The first invention was a torpedo
with knives on the nose. When the nose hit the
net there was a minor explosion. The knives
were sent through the net, permitting the torpedo
to continue on its way. Then the Allies doubled
the nets, and two sets of knives were attached to
the German torpedoes. But gradually the Allies
employed nets as traps. These were anchored or
dragged by fishing boats. Some submarines have
gotten inside, been juggled around, but have escaped.
More, perhaps, have been lost this way.
Then, when merchant ships began to
carry armament, the periscopes were shot away, so
the navy invented a so-called “finger-periscope,”
a thin rod pipe with a mirror at one end. This
rod could he shoved out from the top of the submarine
and used for observation purposes in case the big
periscope was destroyed. From time to time there
were other inventions. As the submarine fleet
grew the means of communicating with each other while
submerged at sea were perfected. Copper plates
were fastened fore and aft on the outside of submarines,
and it was made possible for wireless messages to
be sent through the water at a distance of fifty miles.
A submarine cannot aim at a ship without
some object as a sight. So one submarine often
acted as a “sight” for the submarine firing
the torpedo. Submarines, which at first were
unarmed, were later fitted with armour plate and cannon
were mounted on deck. The biggest submarines
now carry 6-inch guns.
Like all methods of ruthless warfare
the submarine campaign can be and will be for a time
successful. Germany’s submarine warfare
today is much more successful than the average person
realises. By December, 1916, for instance, the
submarines were sinking a half million tons of ships
a month. In January, 1917, over 600,000 tons
were destroyed. On February nearly 800,000 tons
were lost. The destruction of ships means a
corresponding destruction of cargoes, of many hundreds
of thousands of tons. When Germany decided the
latter part of January to begin a ruthless campaign
German authorities calculated they could sink an average
of 600,000 tons per month and that in nine months nearly
6,000,000 tons of shipping could be sent to the bottom
of the ocean, then the Allies would be
robbed of the millions of tons of goods which these
ships could carry.
In any military campaign one of the
biggest problems is the transportation of troops and
supplies. Germany during this war has had to
depend upon her railroads; the Allies have depended
upon ships. Germany looked at her own military
situation and saw that if the Allies could destroy
as many railroad cars as Germany expected to sink ships,
Germany would be broken up and unable to continue the
war. Germany believed ships were to the Allies
what railroad carriages are to Germany.
The General Staff looked at the situation
from other angles. During the winter there was
a tremendous coal shortage in France and Italy.
There had been coal riots in Paris and Rome.
The Italian Government was so in need of coal that
it had to confiscate even private supplies. The
Grand Hotel in Rome, for instance, had to give up 300
tons which it had in its coal bins. In 1915
France had been importing 2,000,000 tons of coal a
month across the Channel from England. Because
of the ordinary loss of tonnage the French coal imports
dropped 400,000 tons per month. Germany calculated
that if she could decrease England’s coal exports
400,000 tons a month by an ordinary submarine campaign
that she could double it by a ruthless campaign.
Germany was looking forward to the
Allied offensive which was expected this Spring.
Germany knew that the Allies would need troops and
ammunition. She knew that to manufacture ammunition
and war supplies coal was needed. Germany calculated
that if the coal importations to France could be cut
down a million tons a month France would not be able
to manufacture the necessary ammunition for an offensive
lasting several months.
Germany knew that England and France
were importing thousands of tons of war supplies and
food from the United States. Judging from the
German newspapers which I read at this time every one
in Germany had the impression that the food situation
in England and France was almost as bad as in Germany.
Even Ambassador Gerard had somewhat the same impression.
When he left Germany for Switzerland on his way to
Spain, he took two cases of eggs which he had purchased
in Denmark. One night at a reception in Berne,
one of the American women in the Gerard party asked
the French Ambassador whether France really had enough
food! If the Americans coming from Germany had
the impression that the Allies were sorely in need
of supplies one can see how general the impression
must have been throughout Germany.
When I was in Paris I was surprised
to see so much food and to see such a variety.
Paris appeared to be as normal in this respect as
Copenhagen or Rotterdam. But I was told by American
women who were keeping house there that it was becoming
more and more difficult to get food.
After Congress declared war it became
evident for the first time that the Allies really
did need war supplies and food from the United States
more than they needed anything else. London and
Paris officials publicly stated that this was the
kind of aid the Allies really needed. It became
evident, too, that the Allies not only needed the food
but that they needed ships to carry supplies across
the Atlantic. One of the first things President
Wilson did was to approve plans for the construction
of a fleet of 3,000 wooden ships practically to bridge
the Atlantic.
During the first three months of 1917
submarine warfare was a success in that it so decreased
the ship tonnage and the importations of the Allies
that they needed American co-operation and assistance.
So the United States really enters the war at
the critical and decisive stage. Germany
believes she can continue to sink ships faster than
they can be built, but Germany did not calculate upon
a fleet of wooden bottom vessels being built in the
United States to make up for the losses. Germany
did not expect the United States to enter the war with
all the vigour and energy of the American people.
Germany calculated upon internal troubles, upon opposition
to the war and upon the pacifists to have America
make as many mistakes as England did during the first
two years of the war. But the United States has
learned and profited by careful observation in Europe.
Just as England’s declaration of war on Germany
in support of Belgium and France was a surprise to
Germany; just as the shipment of war supplies by American
firms to the Allies astonished Germany, so will the
construction of 3,000 wooden vessels upset the calculations
of the German General Staff.
While American financial assistance
will be a great help to the Allies that will not affect
the German calculations because when the Kaiser and
his Generals decided on the 27th of January to damn
all neutrals, German financiers were not consulted.
Neither did the German General Staff
count upon the Russian Revolution going against them.
Germany had expected a revolution there, but Germany
bet upon the Czar and the Czar’s German wife.
As Lieutenant Colonel von Haeften, Chief Military
Censor in Berlin, told the correspondents, Germany
calculated upon the internal troubles in Russia aiding
her. But the Allies and the people won the Russian
Revolution. Germany’s hopes that the Czar
might again return to power or that the people might
overthrow their present democratic leaders will come
to naught now that America has declared war and thrown
her tremendous and unlimited moral influence behind
the Allies and with the Russian people.
Rear Admiral Hollweg’s calculations
that 24,253,615 tons of shipping remained for the
world freight transmission at the beginning of 1917,
did not take into consideration confiscation by the
United States of nearly 2,500,000 tons of German and
Austrian shipping in American ports. He did
not expect the United States to build 3,000 new ships
in 1917. He did not expect the United States
to purchase the ships under construction in American
wharves for neutral European countries.
The German submarine campaign, like
all other German “successes,” will be
temporary. Every time the General Staff has counted
upon “ultimate victory” it has failed
to take into consideration the determination of the
enemy. Germany believed that the world could
be “knocked out” by big blows. Germany
thought when she destroyed and invaded Belgium and
northern France that these two countries would not
be able to “come back.” Germany
thought when she took Warsaw and a great part of western
Russia that Russia would not he able to continue the
war. Germany figured that after the invasion
of Roumania and Servia that these two countries would
not need to be considered seriously in the future.
Germany believed that her submarine campaign would
be successful before the United States could come
to the aid of the Allies. German hope of “ultimate
victory” has been postponed ever since September,
1914, when von Kluck failed to take Paris. And
Germany’s hopes for an “ultimate victory”
this summer before the United States can get into
the war will be postponed so long that Germany will
make peace not on her own terms but upon the terms
which the United States of Democracy of the Whole
World will dictate.
One day in Paris I met Admiral LeCaze,
the Minister of Marine, in his office in the Admiralty.
He discussed the submarine warfare from every angle.
He said the Germans, when they figured upon so many
tons of shipping and of supplies destroyed by submarines,
failed to take into consideration the fact that over
100 ships were arriving daily at French ports and
that over 5,000,000 tons of goods were being brought
into France monthly.
When I explained to him what it appeared
to me would be the object of the German ruthless campaign
he said:
“Germany cannot win the war
by her submarine campaign or by any other weapon.
That side will win which holds out one week, one day
or one hour longer than the other.”
And this Admiral, who, dressed in
civilian clothes, looked more like a New York financier
than a naval officer, leaned forward in his chair,
looked straight at me and concluded the interview by
saying:
“The Allies will win.”